AVOD/FAST channels: How are you approaching rights retention and revenue projections now?

Hey everyone, I'm Tyler, a camera operator usually behind an ARRI AMIRA or a VENICE 2 on bigger gigs. Right now, I'm trying to get a narrative short off the ground, a psychological thriller, and I'm really digging into the finance plan. We're shooting on a KOMODO, with an Aputure PavoTube II 30X and some M18s, so it’s not exactly a shoestring budget, but we're still thinking about every dollar.

My real struggle is around distribution and long-term revenue. With AVOD and FAST channels blowing up, it feels like the landscape for licensing and rights retention is shifting fast. In the past, it felt more straightforward, secure a streamer or a network, negotiate global rights for a term, and project accordingly. Now, with so many platforms that rely on ad revenue, how do you even begin to factor that into a finance plan? Are you holding onto more rights? Are you splitting territories differently? How are you projecting any kind of long-term income from these channels when it's so dependent on viewership and ad fill rates? It’s a bit of a black box for me.

What’s your current strategy for rights retention and long-term revenue projections in a finance plan, considering the rise of AVOD and FAST channels?