Producers & Overestimated Foreign Sales/Streaming Buyouts: What's the Biggest Blunder?

Hey everyone,

Luc here, working as a Steadicam operator. I've been on a few projects lately where things felt a little... optimistic on the financing side, particularly when producers talk about recouping costs from foreign sales or streaming buyouts. We had one shoot where I was operating my ALEXA Mini with a set of Supreme Primes, and the budget felt stretched even with a decent lighting package (M18s, Orbiter). The vibe was that a big streaming deal was just around the corner, and then... crickets.

Another gig, a smaller drama, we were running with an AMIRA, and the producer was banking heavily on a pre-sale to a European distributor that, from my understanding, fell through or was significantly lower than anticipated. It just led to slower payments for everyone.

I'm genuinely trying to understand the producer side of things better. What do you all see as the most common and truly detrimental mistake producers make when they overestimate these foreign sales values or streaming buyouts in today's market? Are there specific pitfalls or market shifts I'm missing?