When Does a Theatrical Window Still Make Sense for Indies in 2026?

Hey everyone, as a gaffer on a few indie projects lately, I've seen the shift to streaming-first firsthand. We just wrapped a low-budget feature shot primarily on an ALEXA Mini with a few SkyPanel S60-Cs and some Titan Tubes for practicals. The plan is initially digital-only, which makes sense for the budget and distribution. But it got me thinking about the 'theatrical first' days.

I'm curious, with the landscape constantly changing, and a lot of the talk being about avoiding traditional windows, when would a theatrical release still be the right strategic move for an indie film aiming for 2026? Are there specific genres, star power thresholds, or festival strategies that could justify it? My gut says maybe for a truly groundbreaking horror or a micro-budget darling with massive festival buzz, but I’d love to hear some current perspectives. What scenarios, if any, still warrant a traditional theatrical push?