Producers overestimating sales/streaming - what's the biggest mistake?

Hey everyone, as a Key Grip, I'm constantly seeing projects at various stages, and one thing that always baffles me (and sometimes messes with our budgets on set) is the initial financial projections, especially for foreign sales or streaming buyouts. We're currently in pre-production on an indie feature, and the financing plan seems heavily reliant on these numbers, which feels... optimistic, given the current landscape.

I’ve been on sets where a budget relies on big numbers, and then we’re suddenly scrambling with a smaller grip package, maybe swapping out an ALEXA 35 for an FX9, or trimming down on our Orbiter units for a couple of LS 300x. It feels like someone miscalculated something big.

So, from your perspective, what is the most common and detrimental mistake producers make when they overestimate foreign sales values or streaming buyouts in today's market? Is it a specific metric, a misunderstanding of market trends, or something else entirely?