When does 'theatrical first' still make sense for indies in 2026?

Hey everyone, I'm Derek, a 1st AC currently on a micro-budget feature shot on an FX30 with most of the available light coming from an amaran 150c and a couple Titan Tubes. We're getting close to picture lock and the 'distribution strategy' talks are starting up. I keep hearing about how the traditional theatrical window is dead for most independent films, and we should just go straight to VOD or streaming.

But I'm wondering, are there any specific scenarios in 2026 where opening with a traditional theatrical window (even a limited one) would still be the smart move for an indie? What kind of film, what kind of budget, what kind of genre? For our current project, we've thought about it, but it just seems like a huge uphill battle with no clear upside. Looking for some real-world examples or insights here. What’s the play?